Back to top

Image: Bigstock

HRTG vs KINS: Which Regional P&C Insurance Stock Offers Better Return?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • HRTG is reviving personal lines underwriting and expanding E&S operations for steady growth.
  • KINS projects 2025 net income of $1.95 and $2.35 per share, driven by rate hikes and cost controls.
  • HRTG's 33.4% ROE and 89% YTD share gain position it ahead of KINS in return potential.

The property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry has been facing challenges due to rising catastrophic events and the Federal Reserve’s first 2025 rate cut of 25 basis points, with two more likely this year. Yet, growth prospects remain strong, supported by a shift toward personalized products and deeper customer engagement through digital innovation. Insurers are maintaining profitability through higher premium volumes, driven by solid policyholder retention, expanding exposure across diverse business lines and a still-favorable rate environment. 

Regional players such as Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG - Free Report) and Kingstone Companies (KINS - Free Report) are leveraging their core strengths to capitalize on these trends. To enhance financial stability, insurers are increasingly adopting reinsurance strategies and utilizing advanced climate risk modeling to improve risk assessment. 

Nonetheless, higher reinsurance costs, stricter contract terms and ongoing inflation continue to apply upward pressure on pricing across the sector, shaping a complex yet resilient operating landscape.

Yet, as an investment option, which stock is more attractive? Let’s closely look at the fundamentals of these stocks.

Factors to Consider for HRTG

Heritage Insurance is intensifying its focus on profitability by maintaining rate adequacy, enforcing strict underwriting standards and restricting new policy issuance in oversaturated or underperforming markets. Given lower returns and a challenging reinsurance landscape, the insurer ceased new personal lines policy writings in Florida and the Northeast in December 2022. However, recent favorable legislative developments in Florida and improvements in reinsurance conditions have encouraged Heritage to cautiously restart personal lines underwriting, guided by a deliberate and strategic growth plan.

Heritage plans to re-enter select high-margin markets while upholding a disciplined approach to capital allocation. The company remains committed to maintaining rate integrity, leveraging data-driven exposure management, and improving operational efficiency to foster sustainable long-term growth. These initiatives are expected to stabilize and gradually increase the in-force policy count through 2025 and 2026.

The excess and surplus (E&S) lines segment continues to serve as a key growth catalyst as Heritage broadens its presence into additional states. Its reinsurance framework is designed to deliver robust protection against catastrophic weather losses in coastal regions. The company anticipates a notable reduction in its ceded premium ratio, supported by cost-effective reinsurance arrangements and rising gross written premiums. Heritage has also completed its 2025–2026 indemnity-based catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance program across its subsidiaries.

Concurrently, Heritage is strengthening its technology infrastructure to strengthen its InsurTech capabilities. Investments in Guidewire Cloud, its partnership with Slide and the adoption of predictive modeling, cloud-based platforms, and pricing analytics are enhancing underwriting precision and accelerating claims handling. Additionally, the company has authorized a $10 million share repurchase program to further enhance shareholder returns.

Factors to Consider for KINS

Kingstone Companies, recognized by S&P as the 12th largest homeowners insurer in New York, with a 2.1% market share in 2024, is strategically positioned to capture growth opportunities. With the Northeastern U.S. commercial insurance market projected to expand by 12.3% through 2025 and several competitors exiting the national personal property segment, KINS is well-placed to strengthen its regional foothold and increase market share.

As a property and casualty insurer focused on the Northeast, Kingstone faces both geographic and product concentration risks. Nevertheless, the company is sharpening its focus on core operations while exiting underperforming and non-core business lines. Upholding disciplined underwriting standards, KINS selectively accepts business that aligns with its profitability goals and risk appetite.

The insurer has effectively raised rates ahead of inflation, ensuring premium adequacy relative to exposure. Its collaboration with Earnix has enhanced its pricing, enabling more precise risk-based pricing and ensuring sustained growth. Kingstone expects direct written premiums from its core operations to grow between 15% and 20% in 2025.

Efforts to improve efficiency continue, with the company targeting lower net underwriting expense ratios through higher average premiums, reduced commission expenses and streamlined staffing. Supported by a robust reinsurance program, Kingstone anticipates an improved combined ratio in the range of 79% to 83% in 2025. The insurer has also strengthened its balance sheet by boosting cash reserves and lowering debt levels.

Profitability has markedly improved, with net margins expanding 2,560 basis points over the past two years, reflecting disciplined underwriting, effective risk management and market dislocation benefits. After returning to profitability in 2024 following a three-year gap, KINS projects net income between $1.95 and $2.35 per share in 2025. 

Furthermore, it expects return on equityto remain strong in the range of 30%-38% in 2025.

Estimates for HRTG and KINS

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HRTG’s 2025 EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 104%. EPS estimates have witnessed no movement over the past 60 days.  

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

On the other hand, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KINS’ 2025 EPS indicates an increase of 37.9% year over year. EPS estimates have witnessed no movement over the past 60 days. 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Are HRTG and KINS Shares Expensive?

Heritage is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.85, above its median of 0.7 over the last five years. KINS’ price-to-book multiple sits at 2.22, above its median of 0.86 over the last five years.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

A growing commercial residential business, expanded personal lines capacity, improving E&S business, better pricing, increasing top line, expanding margins and solid earnings bode well for HRTG’s growth.

Kingstone Companies is strategically positioned to tap into a market opportunity of over $200 million. By focusing on core business expansion, strengthening its niche market foothold, improving pricing and underwriting efficiency, and expanding margins, the company is set for robust and sustained earnings growth.  

On the basis of return on equity, which reflects a company’s efficiency in generating profit from shareholders' equity as well as gives a clear picture of the company's financial health, HRTG, with a ROE of 33.4%, scores higher than KINS, which has a ROE of 33.2%.  

HRTG shares have gained 89% year to date, outperforming the industry, while KINS shares have lost 1.7%, underperforming the industry. HRTG shares are less expensive than those of KINS.  Though both HRTG and KINS carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), HRTG seems a safer bet to secure higher returns.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) - free report >>

Kingstone Companies, Inc (KINS) - free report >>

Published in